SAN FRANCISCO — Overwhelmed by the auspicious marketing and promotional activities for this gargantuan 2025 Prime Day, an unanticipated headwind emerged for Amazon: U.S. Prime membership sign-ups lagged behind last year and under internal expectations.
This year’s Prime Day saw aggressive promotions: Amazon’s marquee retail event so to speak, was taken to the length of four days-a radical departure from its usual 48-hour sprint-while CEO Jassy gushed about its “biggest ever” traction in sales and customer savings. But behind the gleaming headlines is a reality: source data obtained by Reuters reflect a more complex picture. U.S. Prime sign-ups slid by roughly 2 percent compared to 2024 during the expanded window and missed their own internal target by about the same measure.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Between the 8th and the 11th, with Prime Day happening in full force, Amazon sold 1.6 million new U.S. Prime subscriptions-about 6% over expectations (some 87,000 sign-ups).
But the queues of good streak ended in the preceding three weeks. The three-week run-up saw only 3.9 million new sign-ups being recorded, falling short of 2024 performance by 185,000 and down below internal targets by about 193,000, that is, down 5%.
All in all, the 21-day window before and during Prime Day witnessed 5.4 million new U.S. Prime members, 116,000 fewer than the same window in 2024 and 106,000 below the target set by Amazon.
The Stakes and Context of Market Strategy
Prime remains immensely important to the broader Amazon ecosystem. Customers with Prime membership spend markedly more-$1170 on average in 2024-than non-members, who spend $570.
To reinvigorate the membership funnel, Amazon has offered discounted memberships for the 18-to-24-year age group, together with free six-month trials. Meanwhile, the company proposes to spend $4 billion-plus in extending the rural delivery network so as to get fast delivery and other benefits to more people.
Still, outside-facing pressures are considerable. Analysts see the slowdown as an increasing competition between Walmart+ going hard on perks-based membership, and the economic pressure on consumers to be more hesitant when spending on paid subscriptions.
An uneasy scenario: record revenue versus recruitment friction
On an outwardly confident note, Jassy had described Prime Day as record-breaking, citing billions saved by participants and mirrorless customer engagement. On the other hand, internal sign-up data provide a rarely known insight into what is usually a closely guarded metric, showing a more nuanced picture: while the main event did reward recruitment, the very crucial buildup phase limped along.
Tension between two modes of storytelling matters. Prime Day is just not a mere shopping festival, but Amazon’s strongest lever after the holiday season to pull the consumer into becoming a member of Prime. An absence of frontloading in signups points to cracks in that strategy, even if signups from the main event itself are fine.
Looking Ahead: Saturated Market or Strategic Pivot?
The U.S. Prime membership base seems to be getting mature for the Amazon. Earlier estimates put the number close to 180 million as of March 2024, meaning about 75% of U.S. consumers. That alone makes Prime an almost household-name.
If that happens, there maybe a natural slowdown in the growth unless Amazon reinvents what it means to be fast shipping and streaming content.
Over the past several years, Amazon has added a layer of value to Prime, bringing in even more same-day and next-day delivery areas, to the extent members could be looking at a saving of over $500 in delivery charges in 2024, and their logistics footprint is only getting better.
Somewhere Around Amazon
Still, the failsafe strategy of just doing more of what has worked before now has the beginnings of diminishing returns. The longer duration that Prime Day has been on probably has some sort of saturation effect, made stronger by the cautious economic mood or by loyalty to alternative offers by worthy competitors.
Conclusion
Amazon is at another crossroads as it closes yet another chapter in its membership-driven saga. Prime still needs to stay relevant, not only as a source of revenue but also as a constant in consumer spending trends. But even giants have their limits. With U.S. subscriptions faltering despite heavy promotion, future growth for Amazon may be less about volume and more about how well it manages to improve the Prime experience, thereby setting it apart in an increasingly crowded subscription marketplace.
